U.S. stock market: due for a correction

05 January 2014

Regardless of how the economy performs this year, I suspect the U.S. stock market is due for a correction, perhaps as soon as the first quarter of 2014. Sentiment is very bullish and fund managers have piled into the market en masse to avoid under-performing their peers or their benchmarks. People generally believe the Federal Reserve has managed to rescue the economy. The market has moved straight up for one year with at most very shallow pullbacks. I believe the time is ripe for the market to rattle some nerves.

The first chart below shows the 10 and 30-day moving averages for the NYSE Advance/Decline line. The 10-day (blue) is a short term indicator, while the 30-day (red) is an intermediate term indicator. The second chart is the weekly S&P 500 chart for the same period.

nyad3yr05jan2014

spx3yr05jan2014

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Has the secular bull market in gold ended? (Part Two – Bearish arguments for gold)

22 April 2013

Bullish arguments in favour of a continuation of the secular bull market in gold were laid out in this post.

This post will lay out the bear case. But first, some charts to consider and form the backdrop of our discussion. The first set of charts are 3-year weekly charts of gold, silver, and the ETFs GDX (gold miners) and SIL (silver miners).

3 year chart of gold (weekly)

gold22april2013
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Gold and silver decisively break multi-year support

16 April 2013

In a previous blog post last month, I ascribed a greater than 50% chance that gold and silver will break down below long term support. This prediction has come to pass.

Take a look at the short and intermediate term charts of gold and silver respectively.

One year (daily) and Three year (weekly) charts of Gold

golddaily16april2013

goldweekly16april2013

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Long term gold and silver charts revisited

02 March 2013

Let us revisit the long term charts of gold and silver. I contend that since the early stages of the secular bull market, both precious metals clearly exhibited an alternating pattern of 6-9 month upswings followed by 15-18 month consolidation phases.

sc

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Gold and Silver — At critical support

01 March 2013

Gold and silver are at critical multi-month support. Attached below are the 3-Year Weekly charts for both the gold and silver spot price. As can be seen from the charts, gold is near the critical support band of 1540-1560 per ounce, whilst silver is near the critical support band of 27-28 per ounce.

gold01march2013

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