Long term gold and silver charts revisited

02 March 2013

Let us revisit the long term charts of gold and silver. I contend that since the early stages of the secular bull market, both precious metals clearly exhibited an alternating pattern of 6-9 month upswings followed by 15-18 month consolidation phases.


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Gold and Silver — At critical support

01 March 2013

Gold and silver are at critical multi-month support. Attached below are the 3-Year Weekly charts for both the gold and silver spot price. As can be seen from the charts, gold is near the critical support band of 1540-1560 per ounce, whilst silver is near the critical support band of 27-28 per ounce.


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Thoughts on the End Game

John Mauldin, 23 Jan 2010

When I was at Rice University, so many decades ago, I played a lot of bridge. I was only mediocre, but enjoyed it. We had a professor, Dr. Culbertson, who was a bridge Life Master at an early age. He was single and lived in our college, playing bridge with us almost every night. He was a master of the “end game.” He had an uncanny ability to seemingly force his opponents into no-win situations, understanding where the cards had to lie and taking advantage.

Traveling to London and on into Europe, I have some time to think away from the tyranny of the computer. Over the last year, and especially the last few months, I have written in depth about the problems we face all across the developed world. We have no good choices left, so making the correct unpleasant choice is now our most hopeful option.

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Contrarianism is the New Consensus

By Paul Kedrosky

It rarely pays to be contrarian. For the most part trends go in the same direction for some time – that’s why they’re called “trends”.  Whether it’s real estate prices, credit card debt, Treasury issuance, or Croc sales, they can continue along implausibly for far longer than you might think, sane and right-thinking and sober-minded sort that you are.

But contrarianism can work sometimes. When? At inflection points, mostly, when the trend is exhausted and can do nothing but reverse. It can then pay immensely (c.f., John Paulson) to take the other side of a cemented consensus. The trouble is, it’s just about impossible to pick such inflection points – lots of people went short residential real estate well in advance of Paulson, only to lose oodles of money.

Given this, why is contrarianism so appealing? It is appealing – and growing immensely in popularity – because it has so much smart-guy frisson. This naive contrarianism lets you pose outside the system, meanwhile keeping good company like Warren Buffett, John Paulson, the Freakonomics fellows, and oodles of self-declared fellow travelers, most of whom almost certainly aren’t doing what they say they are.

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Don’t Just Watch the Parade Go By

By Arne Alsin
RealMoney.com Contributor

11/9/2009 11:30 AM EST

Count on it. For the next several years, the stock market belongs to the bulls. You’re going to see periodic pullbacks, to be sure, but they’ll be minor, transitory affairs, just enough to keep sideline money out of the market for as long as possible. 

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The PAP story, blemishes and all

Source: ST, 09 Sept 2009

What is Men In White all about? How different is it from previous books on Singapore’s ruling political party?

Let me clarify what the book is not.

It is not a re-telling of Singapore’s transformation from Third World ghetto to First World city, a story which Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew so vividly documented in his memoirs. It is also not about the PAP Government and the art of policy-making.

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Friends and foes under one roof

Source: ST, 09 Sept 2009

IT WAS a historic moment with friends and foes gathered together under the same roof where they last met more than four decades ago – at the Old Parliament House.

The occasion was the launch of a new book on the People’s Action Party (PAP), which brought together Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew and his former political rivals.

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Another bit of history

Source: ST, 09 Sept 2009

MORE than one for the album, this was a picture for the history books.

If not for the numerous photographs capturing the moment, many would have scarcely believed what took place yesterday in the Old Parliament House – in the same chamber where the People’s Action Party (PAP) fought its fiercest battles with its breakaway faction, the Barisan Sosialis, in the early 1960s.

Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew, a PAP founder, exchanged smiles and warm handshakes with those who had been his rivals from the country’s early years.

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Whither Temasek’s industry nurturing role?

Source: Straits Times, 08 Sept 2009

A COLLEAGUE remarked to me the other day that something had struck him as he read Temasek Holdings’ updated charter released last month: Nowhere in the 200-word document is there a mention of Singapore.

There is talk of delivering long-term value for its stakeholders and being an active investor. There is talk of Temasek’s corporate social responsibility (CSR) agenda. The five areas where it wants to work with its portfolio companies – including values, human capital and strategic options – are listed. But there is nothing to identify Temasek as Singaporean. Indeed, it might have been the charter or mission statement of any private sector investment firm, my friend said.

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Inflation hits poorest 20% twice as hard

Source: Straits Times, 25 Aug 2009

This group was affected most by food and housing prices in first six months

By Joyce Teo

SINGAPORE’s poorest 20 per cent were hit twice as hard by inflation than better off households during the first half of the year, new Government figures show.

Largely because of rising food and housing prices, the low-income group experienced inflation at 1.6 per cent in the six months to June, compared to 0.7 per cent for the middle 60 per cent and 0.9 per cent for the top 20 per cent of households.

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How HDB keeps it affordable

ST Letter by Ignatius Lourdesamy, 31 Aug 2009

WE REFER to the letters, ‘High HDB prices: Squeezed even harder’ and ‘Two shortcomings: Public housing too correlated to private market, and HDB has not regulated supply’ (both Aug 22); and ‘Flat hunting: Why was cash over valuation ever introduced?’ (Aug 20).

# Cash over valuation: Resale flat prices are the result of negotiations between willing buyers and sellers. Cash over valuation (COV) arises when buyers are willing to pay more than the market value of the flat, as determined by professional valuers.

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How HDB keeps it affordable

ST Letter by Chew Kim Cheer, 22 Aug 2009

THE HDB resale price index has surged relentlessly since 2007. Since the first quarter of 2007, the index has increased 35.3 per cent and is now at a record high, even though the economy is still recovering from downturn.

This is an anomaly the Government should examine.

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Kass: Market Has Likely Topped

By Doug Kass
RealMoney Silver Contributor
8/26/2009 8:41 AM EDT

URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/marketcommentary/10590587.html

This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on Aug. 26 at 8:11 a.m. EDT.

Back in early March, there were signs of a second derivative U.S. economic recovery, the PMI in China had recorded two consecutive months of advances, domestic retail sales had stabilized, housing affordability was hitting multi-decade highs (with the cost of home ownership vs. renting returning back to 2000 levels), valuations were stretched to the downside and sentiment was negative to the extreme. These factors were ignored, however, and the S&P 500 sank to below 700.

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Recognition for the way IMH handles its patients

Source: Straits Times, 26 Aug 2009

SEVERELY mentally disturbed patients at the Institute of Mental Health (IMH) now spend far less time strapped to their beds or in straitjackets.

They also spend less time – 21 days, down from the previous 27 – in the hospital’s eight-month-old high-dependency psychiatric care unit before being moved to the general wards.

The IMH’s approach in handling acutely disturbed patients bagged it the Most Outstanding Project prize in the Customer Service Project category of the recent Asian Hospital Management Awards held in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

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“Pledge ourselves as one united people”

Written by Ng E-Jay, for the Online Citizen
06 Aug 2009

Original TOC link

What does it mean to be “one united people”?

Does it mean forging a national identity that can be shared by all Singaporeans regardless of race, language or creed? Does it mean accepting and respecting all our differences, whether in terms of political affiliation or sexual orientation? I can certainly agree with this.

Or does it mean adopting an unquestioning attitude towards Government policies and social issues, and agreeing to make personal sacrifices whilst the PAP reaps the benefits, in the name of “staying together, moving ahead” (PAP’s 2006 GE slogan)?

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Level the playing field for locals and foreigners in employment

Source: The Online Citizen

Recommended Reads:

Singapore: A Model of Judgment for the United States? by Harvard Business Publishing.

Leong Sze Hian was invited by BlogTV to pen an article for them. We publish it below.

Before we talk about whether Singaporeans deserve to have more privileges than PRs and foreigners, perhaps we could first ask whether there may be any areas whereby foreigners or PRs have “more privileges” than Singaporeans?

Employers which employ foreigners, do not have to contribute CPF.  So, the employer saves up to 14.5 per cent of the salary.

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The Greenback Effect

Source: New York Times, 18 Aug 2009


IN nature, every action has consequences, a phenomenon called the butterfly effect. These consequences, moreover, are not necessarily proportional. For example, doubling the carbon dioxide we belch into the atmosphere may far more than double the subsequent problems for society. Realizing this, the world properly worries about greenhouse emissions.

The butterfly effect reaches into the financial world as well. Here, the United States is spewing a potentially damaging substance into our economy — greenback emissions.

To be sure, we’ve been doing this for a reason I resoundingly applaud. Last fall, our financial system stood on the brink of a collapse that threatened a depression. The crisis required our government to display wisdom, courage and decisiveness. Fortunately, the Federal Reserve and key economic officials in both the Bush and Obama administrations responded more than ably to the need.

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Why the Singapore Democratic Party deserves our support

Written by Ng E-Jay
30 July 2009

The first SDP event I attended was the gathering at Hong Lim Park on 01 May 2007 welcoming Dr Chee Soon Juan and Ms Chee Siok Chin after they had completed a 2-day, 120km walk to mark Labour Day and to highlight the plight of Singaporean workers.

Looking at the exhausted but determined faces of Dr Chee and Ms Chee, and hearing the short but edifying address Dr Chee made left me with the impression that perhaps, unlike the terrible vibes that the party constantly receives from the mainstream media, the SDP was a party of substance, that perhaps it was a party with a message worth listening to.

I was not wrong.

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Grossly inadequate protection for credit card users

Written by Ng E-Jay
29 July 2009

If consumers have their credit cards stolen or used fraudulently, they may be liable for all transactions made even though they may have done nothing wrong.

This is yet another sorry example of how the Government proudly sells the image of Singapore as a world-class financial hub, yet fails to offer consumers even the most basic protection against theft and fraud.

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